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Intelligence assessment, or simply intel, is the development of behavior forecasts or recommended courses of action to the leadership of an organisation, based on wide ranges of available overt and covert
information Information is an abstract concept that refers to that which has the power to inform. At the most fundamental level information pertains to the interpretation of that which may be sensed. Any natural process that is not completely random ...
(intelligence). Assessments develop in response to leadership declaration requirements to inform
decision-making In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the Cognition, cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be ...
. Assessment may be executed on behalf of a
state State may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Literature * ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State * ''The State'' (newspaper), a daily newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina, United States * ''Our S ...
,
military A military, also known collectively as armed forces, is a heavily armed, highly organized force primarily intended for warfare. It is typically authorized and maintained by a sovereign state, with its members identifiable by their distinct ...
or commercial organisation with ranges of information sources available to each. An intelligence assessment reviews available information and previous assessments for relevance and currency. Where there requires additional information, the analyst may direct some collection.
Intelligence studies Intelligence studies is an interdisciplinary academic field that concerns intelligence assessment and intelligence analysis. Intelligence has been referred to as the "lost dimension" of the fields of international relations (IR) and diplomatic hist ...
is the academic field concerning intelligence assessment, especially relating to
international relations International relations (IR), sometimes referred to as international studies and international affairs, is the scientific study of interactions between sovereign states. In a broader sense, it concerns all activities between states—such as ...
and
military science Military science is the study of military processes, institutions, and behavior, along with the study of warfare, and the theory and application of organized coercive force. It is mainly focused on theory, method, and practice of producing mil ...
.


Process

Intelligence assessment is based on a customer requirement or need, which may be a standing requirement or tailored to a specific circumstance or a Request for Information (RFI). The "requirement" is passed to the assessing agency and worked through the
intelligence cycle The Intelligence cycle describes how intelligence is ideally processed in civilian and military intelligence agencies, and law enforcement organizations. It is a closed path consisting of repeating nodes, which (if followed) will result in finis ...
, a structured method for responding to the RFI. The RFI may indicate in what format the requester prefers to consume the product. The RFI is reviewed by a Requirements Manager, who will then direct appropriate tasks to respond to the request. This will involve a review of existing material, the tasking of new analytical product or the collection of new information to inform an analysis. New information may be collected through one or more of the various collection disciplines; human source, electronic and communications intercept,
imagery Imagery is visual symbolism, or figurative language that evokes a mental image or other kinds of sense impressions, especially in a literary work, but also in other activities such as psychotherapy. Forms There are five major types of sensory ima ...
or open sources. The nature of the RFI and the urgency placed on it may indicate that some collection types are unsuitable due to the time taken to collect or validate the information gathered. Intelligence gathering disciplines and the sources and methods used are often highly classified and compartmentalised, with analysts requiring an appropriate high level of
security clearance A security clearance is a status granted to individuals allowing them access to classified information (state or organizational secrets) or to restricted areas, after completion of a thorough background check. The term "security clearance" is ...
. The process of taking known information about situations and entities of importance to the RFI, characterizing what is known and attempting to forecast future events is termed " all source" assessment, analysis or processing. The analyst uses multiple sources to mutually corroborate, or exclude, the information collected, reaching a conclusion along with a measure of confidence around that conclusion. Where sufficient current information already exists, the analysis may be tasked directly without reference to further collection. The analysis is then communicated back to the requester in the format directed, although subject to the constraints on both the RFI and the methods used in the analysis, the format may be made available for other uses as well and disseminated accordingly. The analysis will be written to a defined classification level with alternative versions potentially available at a number of classification levels for further dissemination.


Target-centric intelligence cycle

This approach, known as Find-Fix-Finish-Exploit-Assess (F3EA), is complementary to the intelligence cycle and focused on the intervention itself, where the subject of the assessment is clearly identifiable and provisions exist to make some form of intervention against that subject, the target-centric assessment approach may be used. The subject for action, or target, is identified and efforts are initially made to find the target for further development. This activity will identify where intervention against the target will have the most beneficial effects. When the decision is made to intervene, action is taken to fix the target, confirming that the intervention will have a high probability of success and restricting the ability of the target to take independent action. During the finish stage, the intervention is executed, potentially an arrest or detention or the placement of other collection methods. Following the intervention, exploitation of the target is carried out, which may lead to further refinement of the process for related targets. The output from the exploit stage will also be passed into other intelligence assessment activities.


See also

*
All-source intelligence All-source intelligence is a term used to describe intelligence organizations, intelligence analysts, or intelligence products that are based on all available sources of intelligence collection information. History The definition of all-source inte ...
*
Intelligence cycle The Intelligence cycle describes how intelligence is ideally processed in civilian and military intelligence agencies, and law enforcement organizations. It is a closed path consisting of repeating nodes, which (if followed) will result in finis ...
*
List of intelligence gathering disciplines This is a list of intelligence gathering disciplines. HUMINT Human intelligence (HUMINT) are gathered from a person in the location in question. Sources can include the following: * Advisors or foreign internal defense (FID) personnel wor ...
*
Military intelligence Military intelligence is a military discipline that uses information collection and analysis approaches to provide guidance and direction to assist commanders in their decisions. This aim is achieved by providing an assessment of data from a ...
*
Surveillance Surveillance is the monitoring of behavior, many activities, or information for the purpose of information gathering, influencing, managing or directing. This can include observation from a distance by means of electronic equipment, such as c ...
*
Threat assessment Threat assessment is the practice of determining the credibility and seriousness of a potential threat, as well as the probability that the threat will become a reality. Threat assessment is separate to the more established practice of violence-ri ...
*
Futures studies Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will li ...


References


Further reading

; Surveys * Andrew, Christopher. ''For the President's Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush'' (1996) * Black, Ian and Morris, Benny '' Israel's Secret Wars: A History of Israel's Intelligence Services'' (1991)
Bungert, Heike et al. eds. ''Secret Intelligence in the Twentieth Century'' (2003)
essays by scholars * Dulles, Allen W. ''The Craft of Intelligence: America's Legendary Spy Master on the Fundamentals of Intelligence Gathering for a Free World'' (2006) * Kahn, David ''The Codebreakers: The Comprehensive History of Secret Communication from Ancient Times to the Internet'' (1996), 1200 pages * Lerner, K. Lee and Brenda Wilmoth Lerner, eds. ''Encyclopedia of Espionage, Intelligence and Security'' (2003), 1100 pages. 850 articles, strongest on technology * Odom, Gen. William E. ''Fixing Intelligence: For a More Secure America, Second Edition (Yale Nota Bene)'' (2004) * O'Toole, George. ''Honorable Treachery: A History of U.S. Intelligence, Espionage, Covert Action from the American Revolution to the CIA'' (1991) * Owen, David. ''Hidden Secrets: A Complete History of Espionage and the Technology Used to Support It'' (2002), popular
Richelson, Jeffery T. ''A Century of Spies: Intelligence in the Twentieth Century'' (1997)
* Richelson, Jeffery T. ''The U.S. Intelligence Community'' (4th ed. 1999) * Shulsky, Abram N. and Schmitt, Gary J. "Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence" (3rd ed. 2002), 285 pages * West, Nigel. ''MI6: British Secret Intelligence Service Operations 1909–1945'' (1983) * West, Nigel. ''Secret War: The Story of SOE, Britain's Wartime Sabotage Organization'' (1992) * Wohlstetter, Roberta. ''Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision'' (1962) ; World War I * Beesly, Patrick. ''Room 40''. (1982). Covers the breaking of German codes by RN intelligence, including the Turkish bribe, Zimmermann telegram, and failure at Jutland. * May, Ernest (ed.) ''Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment before the Two World Wars'' (1984) * Tuchman, Barbara W. ''The Zimmermann Telegram'' (1966) * Yardley, Herbert O. ''American Black Chamber'' (2004) ; World War II: 1931–1945 * Babington Smith, Constance. ''Air Spy: the Story of Photo Intelligence in World War II'' (1957) - originally published as ''Evidence in Camera'' in the UK * Beesly, Patrick. ''Very Special Intelligence: the Story of the Admiralty's Operational Intelligence Centre, 1939–1945'' (1977) * Hinsley, F. H. ''British Intelligence in the Second World War'' (1996) (abridged version of multivolume official history) * Jones, R. V. ''Most Secret War: British Scientific Intelligence 1939–1945'' (2009) * Kahn, David. ''Hitler's Spies: German Military Intelligence in World War II'' (1978) * Kahn, David. ''Seizing the Enigma: the Race to Break the German U-Boat Codes, 1939–1943'' (1991) * Kitson, Simon. ''The Hunt for Nazi Spies: Fighting Espionage in Vichy France'', Chicago: University of Chicago Press, (2008). * Lewin, Ronald. ''The American Magic: Codes, Ciphers and the Defeat of Japan'' (1982) * May, Ernest (ed.) ''Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment before the Two World Wars'' (1984) * Smith, Richard Harris. ''OSS: the Secret History of America's First Central Intelligence Agency'' (2005) * Stanley, Roy M. ''World War II Photo Intelligence'' (1981) * Wark, Wesley K. ''The Ultimate Enemy: British Intelligence and Nazi Germany, 1933–1939'' (1985) * Wark, Wesley K. "Cryptographic Innocence: the Origins of Signals Intelligence in Canada in the Second World War", in: ''Journal of Contemporary History'' 22 (1987) ; Cold War Era: 1945–1991 * Aldrich, Richard J. ''The Hidden Hand: Britain, America and Cold War Secret Intelligence'' (2002). * Ambrose, Stephen E. ''Ike's Spies: Eisenhower and the Intelligence Establishment'' (1981).
Andrew, Christopher and Vasili Mitrokhin. ''The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB'' (1999)
* Andrew, Christopher, and Oleg Gordievsky. ''KGB: The Inside Story of Its Foreign Operations from Lenin to Gorbachev'' (1990). * Bogle, Lori, ed. ''Cold War Espionage and Spying'' (2001), essays by scholars * Boiling, Graham. ''Secret Students on Parade: Cold War Memories of JSSL, CRAIL'', PlaneTree, 2005. * Dorril, Stephen. ''MI6: Inside the Covert World of Her Majesty's Secret Intelligence Service'' (2000). * Dziak, John J. ''Chekisty: A History of the KGB'' (1988) * Elliott, Geoffrey and Shukman, Harold. ''Secret Classrooms. An Untold Story of the Cold War''. London, St Ermin's Press, Revised Edition, 2003.
Koehler, John O. ''Stasi: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police'' (1999)
* Ostrovsky, Viktor ''
By Way of Deception By or BY may refer to: Places * By, Doubs, France, a commune * By, Norway, a village Codes * Belarus ISO country code ** .by, country-code top-level domain for Belarus * Burundi FIPS Pub 10-4 and obsolete NATO digram country code * TUI Airwa ...
'' (1990) *
Persico, Joseph Joseph Edward Persico (July 19, 1930August 30, 2014) was an author and American military historian. From 1974 to 1977, he was primary speechwriter to Vice President Nelson Rockefeller. At the time of his death, he lived in Guilderland, New York.Univ ...
. ''Casey: The Lives and Secrets of William J. Casey-From the OSS to the CIA'' (1991) * Prados, John. ''Presidents' Secret Wars: CIA and Pentagon Covert Operations Since World War II'' (1996)
Rositzke, Harry. ''The CIA's Secret Operations: Espionage, Counterespionage, and Covert Action'' (1988)

Trahair, Richard C. S. ''Encyclopedia of Cold War Espionage, Spies and Secret Operations'' (2004)
by an Australian scholar; contains excellent historiographical introduction * Weinstein, Allen, and Alexander Vassiliev. ''The Haunted Wood: Soviet Espionage in America—The Stalin Era'' (1999).


External links




The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments by J. Ransom Clark, Emeritus Professor of Political Science, Muskingum College
{{DEFAULTSORT:Intelligence Assessment Data collection Intelligence analysis